选秀还是交易状元签？美国球迷热议状元秀最低标准 Which player's career is worst y

Which player"s career is worst you would accept for #1 pick in draft?

哪位球员的生涯表现是你能接受的状元秀下限？

The title probably isn"t phrased well so I"ll try to explain it.

标题可能有点拗口，我来解释一下。

In hypotetical situation in which you have 1st pick in this (or some other) year"s draft and you can trade that pick for current/former player that is guaranteed to have exact the same career as he really did (it brings you only their performances, you can"t say "Horry because that would guarantee me 7 rings").

假设你手握着今年（或者某年）的状元签，并且你可以用这个状元签交易来一个现役/当年的球员，并且这个球员的生涯表现保证和（历史上的）实际情况完全相符（仅限于他们自己的场上表现，所以你不能说“我要交易来霍里，这样我保证能拿到7个冠军”）。

Which player had the worst career you would accept as safe and not being disappointed with him instead of gambling with selecting some player who can turn superstar/good/average/disappointment/complete bust?

哪位球员的生涯表现是你能接受的下限，让你觉得保险，不会对他失望，宁愿用状元签把他交易来，也不会冒险去选一位未来可能成为超级巨星/优秀球员/中等水平/令人失望/或者彻底水掉的球员？

[–]Hawks Tankwagoncallmerevan 604 指標 10小時前

Off the wall here but I"d at least like Elton Brand, 20/10/2/2 is pretty damn solid and he"s got a couple All Stars and All NBA teams.

可能这么说有点离谱，但我的底线是埃尔顿-布兰德。他生涯场均20+10+2+2，非常不错了，而且多次入选了全明星和最佳阵容。

[–][PHI] Allen IversonEuroStep0[S] 97 指標 9小時前

yeah, that"s pretty good answer

it would obviously depend year-to-year, in 2003 i would definitely want someone better than in 2013 for example even without knowing LeBron will turn out to be top 3 players of all time

楼上说得不赖。

要回答这个问题，显然要看你手握的是哪一年的状元签。比方说如果是2003年的状元签，那我的要求肯定比2013年更高，就算我不知道詹姆斯未来会成为历史前三的巨星也一样。

[–]Rockets Bandwagonlivefreeordont 63 指標 6小時前

He was just a tier below the Amares, Duncans, Garnetts, and Dirks off the 2000s

布兰德在世纪初只比小斯、邓肯、加内特和诺维茨基低一档啊。

[–]uleelee 37 指標 6小時前

id say he was on the same tier when he was dropping like 25 a game on the clippers lol.

我觉得布兰德在快船场均大概25分的时候，他和你说的那几个人应该是同一档的。

[–]Rockets Bandwagonlivefreeordont 75 指標 6小時前

That was a single year lol. Just like I wouldn’t say IT was ever on the same tier as Steph or CP3

但也仅限那一年而已啊，笑了，就像我永远不会说小托马斯是和保罗库里一档的。

[–]SimonGallupsBass 46 指標 5小時前

He averaged 20/10 for 7 straight seasons before an Achilles jacked his career.

他在跟腱受伤导致生涯滑坡之前，可是连续7个赛季场均20+10啊。

[–]Rockets Bandwagonlivefreeordont 47 指標 5小時前

Yup. Just a tier below like I said

对啊，所以我说只差了一档。

[–][PHI] Allen IversonEuroStep0[S] 323 指標 10小時前

my absolutely lowest would be something like Jeff Hornacek

no major injuries, about 17ppg on good efficiency with 5-5.5apg in prime, very reliable shooter

我能接受的最低下限大概是杰夫-霍纳塞克吧。

没遭遇过重大伤病，巅峰期场均高效拿到大概17分，还有5到5.5个助攻，投射很可靠。

[–]sickvisorbro 112 指標 9小時前

You can have the coach version of him :).

教练形态的霍纳塞克了解一下:)

[–]UFOVeeg 47 指標 6小時前

He would be called a HUGE bust by all his fans though for his entire career

但是如果你真拿状元签换了他，那在球迷眼里，他的整个生涯算得上是水透了啊。

[–][WAS] Gilbert Arenaselipark13 71 指標 6小時前*

Do people call Andrew Bogut a bust? Because he was a #1 pick who similarly peaked as a good not great player who could serve as a key piece on a contender.

有人觉得安德鲁-博古特是水货吗？他是状元秀，跟霍纳塞克相似的是，他也是在巅峰期表现不错，但称不上很出色，在争冠球队里也能发挥关键作用。

[–]uleelee 61 指標 6小時前

bogut was a beast before that injury where he landed on his arm and had 3 different injuries on his arm

博古特在受伤之前堪称猛兽，他那次受伤时手先着地，手臂同时遭受了三种伤病。

[–]CelticsMrMojo18 95 指標 10小時前

I think it is realistic to expect atleast a couple years at an Allstar level from a guy taken first overall.

Elton Brand (who actually was picked 1st) is a good example imo.

Jermaine O"Neal maybe aswell, though he was on his way to a Hall of Fame career if not for injuries.

Maybe Kyle Lowry aswell?

我觉得吧，期待一个状元至少连续几年打出全明星水平应该算是一个实际的想法。

在我看来埃尔顿-布兰德（实际上他确实是状元秀）是个好例子。

杰梅因-奥尼尔可能也算是，虽然他如果不受伤的话是能够打出名人堂级别的生涯的。

可能凯尔-洛瑞也算是？

[–][GSW] Stephen CurryDraper-11 382 指標 10小時前

Paul Millsap?

保罗-米尔萨普了解一下？

[–]Raptorsraptorsfan97 146 指標 10小時前

He"s the exact player who came to my mind too lol.

我第一个想到的也是他哈哈。

[–]Trail Blazers_Quetzalcoatlus_ 64 指標 9小時前

Maybe if he played like he did in Atlanta, but he wasn"t even a starting caliber player until his 4th year in the league. And he wasn"t a capable shooter until his 8th year (first year in Atlanta).

如果按他在老鹰的表现来说，那还有可能。但他直到生涯第四年才成为一名合格的首发，到第八年（在老鹰的第一年）才有了靠谱的投篮。

[–]Knicksalexyxray 58 指標 7小時前

As much as I love Paul Trillsap his career is really overrated by stats junkies like us on r/nba, probably from all the praise he gets from Kevin Arnovitz and Zach Lowe.

虽然我很喜欢米尔萨普，但是他的生涯真的被一些像本论坛网友这样看重数据的人高估了。可能源于Kevin Arnovitz和Zach Lowe对他的赞誉吧。

To me his ideal role on a good team would be what Iguodala was in his first year with the Warriors, hit timely shots, defend the best player and do what the team needs, but is a 3rd option as a scorer at best.

在我看来，他在一支强队的理想角色应该和伊格达拉在勇士的第一年很像。适时投进篮，防守对方的最佳球员，并且包揽队伍的各种脏活累活。但在进攻端，他最多也就是第三选择。

[–]Warriorsvelocirappa 160 指標 9小時前

Peja Stojakovic? A couple all star teams, number two guy on a contender for a couple years, briefly top 10 in the league.

佩贾-斯托亚科维奇呢？多次入选全明星，连续几年在争冠球队中担任二号角色，还曾经短暂进过联盟前十。

[–]UnusualNegotiation 16 指標 6小時前

Bruh you show me a healthy Peja on a good team w/o Webber and I"ll show you an MVP candidate.

老哥，你给我一个健康的/在强队效力的/没有韦伯光环掩盖的佩贾，我就还给你你个MVP候选人。

[–]KingsBagel_Technician 17 指標 4小時前

He was 4th in MVP voting in "04

国王球迷：佩贾在2004年MVP评选中排第四啊。

[–]Savarinoj 284 指標 9小時前

I think Mike Conley is a good candidate. Definitely an above average player when healthy that’s never received any accolades for his play.

我觉得迈克-康利可以一战。他健康时无疑是一名高于平均水准的球员，但却没有因为自己的表现而赢得任何荣誉上嘉奖。

[–][OKC] Kevin Durantonewonyuan 71 指標 9小時前

Are we back on the "Mike Conley is underrated" train?

我们是不是又回到了“迈克-康利被低估了”的话题上了？

[–]Maverickshalfbrit08 128 指標 8小時前

He"s appropriately rated. He"s been considered one of the best non-allstar PGs for a while now.

对他的评价很中肯了。他被看作是最好的非全明星控卫之一已经很长时间了。

[–]Cavalierskevinnye 452 指標 10小時前

i actually really like this question. i know he"s kind of an enigma right now, but maybe the lowest i"d go is like a kevin love. multiple all-stars, had stretches where he could carry a team, and (particularly when younger) could be an incredible complement if you already have another stud on the roster - that would be a nice guarantee for a #1 overall.

我真的很喜欢这个问题。我的最低选择会是凯文-乐福，虽然我知道他目前有点谜，但他多次入选全明星，曾经在一段时间内carry了全队，并且（特别是在年轻的时候）在你已经具备建队基石的情况下能够成为极佳的补强——状元秀能保证这些已经非常好了。

[–]CelticsAFuckingShark 378 指標 10小時前

I would way way rather have guaranteed multiple all-star than a gamble at #1 Love is too good for the lowest you would accept IMO.

多年全明星和赌状元签相比，我想都不用想肯定选前者。在我看来，把乐福作为状元秀的最低标准已经有点太高了。

[–]Spursasa55 28 指標 9小時前

Who would you consider then?

那楼上会考虑谁呢？

[–]CelticsAFuckingShark 129 指標 9小時前

I listed JJ Reddick lower down this thread but I may have low balled it. The worst I"d accept is a good player - but not an all-star. A guy who has consistently been an above average starter and overall contributor.

我在本帖的其他楼有提到JJ-雷迪克，但这个标准可能有点太低了。我能接受的最低限度是一名出色的球员，但不是全明星。是一名持续打出高于平均水准的表现，并且整体上能为球队持续做出贡献的球员。

[–]RaptorsOthellothepoor 100 指標 9小時前

I think you"re selling it a bit low. For me personally, should be at least 1/2 All-Star, or All-NBA, or DPOY. I think a #1 SHOULD at least have one impact year. That"s jsut me though

我觉得你这个要求有点太低了。对我个人而言，至少会要求一到两届全明星，或者最佳阵容，或者最佳防守球员。我认为一名状元秀至少要有一年的亮眼表现。不过这只是我个人观点而已。

[–]Spurshonsuo73 84 指標 9小時前

Kemba. Fringe all star, gets buckets. Not gonna change a team but you could do a lot worse with a #1 pick

我选肯巴-沃克。在全明星的边缘试探，能得分。实力不足以改变一支球队的命运，但是用状元签来换他也远远说不上最差。

[–]JazzRGiss 113 指標 10小時前

Someone like Hayward.

爵士球迷：大概就海沃德这样的吧。

[–]ZandrickEllison 69 指標 10小時前

Hayward is about as close to the line as I"d consider, but I"d still roll the dice on the #1 pick. Hayward wouldn"t be a "bust" at # 1 by any means, but he"d be a little underwhelming.

海沃德跟我想的标准差不多了，但我还是会用状元签赌一把。用状元的标准衡量海沃德，无论如何都不能算是“水掉”，但他还是有那么一点不够给力。

[–]JazzTheNextMOH 111 指標 8小時前

I think people underestimate just how good Hayward was last year because he played in a small market. But I think if he"s able to come back at that level...he is a top 15 player in the league. Very well rounded. sobs

爵士球迷：我觉得由于海沃德在小球市打球，大家都低估了他去年的出色表现。但我觉得如果他能从伤病中完全恢复的话，会成为联盟前15的球员。他是个非常全面的球员。(流下心酸的泪水)