光棍节|2020年光棍节:它到底是啥？光棍节|2020年|新冠|sales|双十一

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*注：本文摘自10月27日《福布斯》
Singles’ Day 2020: What Does It Mean?
2020年光棍节:它到底是啥？
1. Singles’ Day in China (November 11) is the number one shopping day in the world, with historical numbers easily topping similar sales days in other countries. In 2019, for example, Singles’ Day on Alibaba reached $38 billion, just over ten times the $3.5 billion Amazon reached in the U.S. on Prime Day this year. The simple explanation is that China is the largest e-commerce market in the world, so there should be no surprise that its sales holidays are also the largest.
中国的光棍节(11月11日)是世界上最大的购物节，其销售数据远超其他国家类似的销售日。例如，亚马逊今年在美国黄金周交易额为35亿美元，而2019年，阿里巴巴光棍节交易额达到380亿美元，是亚马逊的10倍多。原因很明显，中国有世界上最大的电子商务市场，所以中国的购物节销售量最大也不足为奇了。
2. But what about this year? Will there be Covid-related developments or other twists? My view is that Single’s Day 2020 will see a lot of good news. However, there are potentially one or two clouds in this sunny forecast.
但是今年呢?是否会出现新冠肺炎相关的发展或其他转折？我的观点是，2020年光棍节显示了好的一面，但是，在这些好消息中也有一些坏消息。
First the good news.
首先来看好消息。
3.The fundamentals. China’s economy has recovered well from Covid-19 and is now operating on a normal footing, with 4.9% GDP growth in the third quarter, up from 3.2% growth in the previous quarter and -6.8% in the first quarter—a nicereboundby anyone’s measure.
【 光棍节|2020年光棍节:它到底是啥？】基本面。中国经济已从新冠中恢复，目前已经恢复正常。第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长4.9%，高于上一季度的3.2%和第一季度的-6.8%，无论从哪方面衡量，这都是一个不错的反弹。
4. E-commerce sales and consumer behavior also seem to have completely rebounded, withcosmeticssales up 19% from a year earlier, and householdappliancesup 4% in the same period.For Single’s Day, Alibaba is boasting the participation of 250,000 brands and 800 million consumers (of which 200 million areGeneration Z).
电子商务销售和消费者行为似乎也出现反弹，化妆品销售同比增长19%，家电销售同比增长4%。光棍节当天，阿里巴巴25万个销售品牌和8亿消费者(其中2亿是95后)。
5. Not just a day. Alibaba isrepositioningSingle’s Day to be a seasonal sales period, with pre-sales starting October 21 andencompassingfour different days of sales. This will place less demand on China’slogisticssystems and also give moreleewayto merchants and consumers toshop around, experiment, and explore, rather than afrenzied24-hour spree. It is less about price-driven promotions and more about scale driving prices down.
不仅仅是光棍节那一天。阿里巴巴将光棍节变成一个销售节，从10月21日开始预售，这期间还有四个销售日。这将减轻中国物流系统的压力，也给商家和消费者更多的空间来货比三家，而不是在24小时内疯狂购物。这不是价格驱动的促销活动，而是规模推动的促销。
6. International pitch. Alibaba also is pushing the international dimension of Singles’ Day, suggesting overseas brands use China as part of a “global brand recovery.” It all has a certain logic given China’s progress in recovering from the pandemic. And Alibaba will be producing English-language livestream videos as part of that engagement. Some 2,600 international brands will be new to the platform this year.
国际方面。阿里巴巴还将光棍节推向国际，海外品牌将中国作为“全球品牌复苏”的一个基点。由于中国快速从疫情中恢复，这一切都有几分道理。作为合作的一部分，阿里巴巴将制作英语直播视频。今年约有2600个国际品牌将加入该阿里平台。
Any clouds on this sunny day?
暗藏的阴云？
7. Covid means more activity will be virtual, such as the famous televisiongala. Similarly, it means fewer foreign celebrities and business leaders will be able to join. The event promises to be quite acommercialsuccess, but there will be less of acelebratorymood.
新冠导致很多活动比如电视晚会都转向线上。同样，新冠也导致参加活动的国外网红和商界名人减少。双十一活动会取得很大商业成功，但是节庆气氛会更少。
8. Second, Covid and global economicturmoilmeans some downward pressure on brands. Some of the companies that could be participating are still working through Covid issues and are moretentativeabout participation.