未来十年世界将变成什么样？这些科幻小说家脑洞大开，畅想了一番听五位科幻小说家畅想未来十年世界将变

加拿大著名科幻小说作家科里·多克托罗(Cory Doctorow)在试图猜测未来世界的模样时发表了一个“免责声明”：“科幻小说家们在预测未来方面糟糕透了。”尽管如此，这并不能阻止我们去依靠他们的想象力和细致的深思熟虑来畅想未来。未来十年，世界将变成什么样子？一起来听听五位科幻小说家是怎么说的吧。

We"re going to see a revolution in automated assisted living.

(我们会目睹自动化辅助生活这一领域的重大变革。)

—David Walton, author of Superposition1) (《叠加》的作者戴维·沃尔顿)

“在下一个十年中，最先使用新科技的人可能就是你的奶奶。

"In the next 10 years, the earliest adopter of new technology might just be your grandmother.

“在所有可能会在未来十年发生巨变的领域里，家居生活自动化领域已经做好迅猛发展的准备了。对我们当中的大多数人而言，通过手机启动微波炉或者看着机器人给我们扫地最多不过是向邻居和朋友炫耀的一种新奇玩意儿而已。不过，对于年老体弱者来说，这却可能意味着残障和独立之间的区别。

"Of all the fields in which dramatic changes might be seen in the next decade, the field of home automation is the one poised2) to explode. For most of us, the ability to turn on our ovens from our phones or watch a robot clean our floors is little more than a novelty3) to impress our neighbors and friends. To the elderly or infirm4), however, it could mean the difference between disability and independence.

“在下一个十年里，我们会目睹自动化辅助生活这一领域的重大变革。想象一个简单的可滚动机器人，随叫随到，给你呈上一个电子屏，提醒你每一天的日程安排。它完全是声控的，可以控制你家的照明、门锁、微波炉以及水温。它监测屋内食物的情况，如有必要，还能下订单购买更多的食物。它可以通过视频会议让你和家人、朋友保持联系，或者就只是给你读一本书。它会在你需要服药时把药拿给你，记录你之前把眼镜放在了哪里，还可以在你需要紧急医疗救助时通过可穿戴健康监测设备联系你的家人或医生。

"In the next decade, we"re going to see a revolution in automated assisted living. Imagine a simple rolling robot that comes when you call, presenting you with a video screen that reminds you of your daily schedule. Totally voice-activated, it can control your lights and door locks, oven and water temperature. It keeps track of the food in the house and can order more when necessary. It can connect you with family and friends through video conferencing, or simply read you a book. It gives you your medicine when you need it, keeps track of where you left your glasses, and—through wearable health monitors—can call your family or your doctor if you need urgent medical help.

“现在的科技已经基本可以实现上述功能了，在接下来的几年里，政府必然会投入巨资。那些不愿尝试新鲜事物的人在新科技让他们有能力保持独立后，也会被争取过来的。从现在开始的十年之后，当你再去探望你的父母或是祖父母时，他们拥有的高科技设备很可能比你的还高级呢！”

"The technology is nearly ready, and immense government investment will be inevitable in the coming years. Those hesitant to try new things will be won over5) when it gives them the power to maintain their independence. Ten years from now, when you visit your parents or grandparents, they may very well have better technology than you do!"

1. superposition [?su?p?p??z??n] n. 叠加

2. poised [p??zd] adj. 准备好的；蓄势待发的

3. novelty [?n?vlti] n. 新奇的事物

4. infirm [?n?f??m] adj. (常指因年迈而)体弱多病的

5. win over: 把……争取过来；赢得……的支持

We’ll be seeing less need for people to own individual “stuff”.

(我们将会看到人们对拥有个人“物品”的需求越来越小。)

—Elizabeth Bear, author of Karen Memory (《凯伦的记忆》的作者伊丽莎白·贝尔)

“我觉得未来十年，还有更久远的以后，最大的趋势之一也正是我们对后稀缺经济最大的希望之一。随着科技使得共享实体物品以及虚拟物品变得越来越可行，我们将会看到人们对拥有个人‘物品’的需求越来越小，而各个群体的人共同分期偿还某样物品花销的机会越来越多。它本质上相当于通过租借、合作经营等方式让人更多地共享一件物品。如果你一周需要使用三小时的割草机，而如果你可以和邻居们一起去买几台割草机大家共用；又或者如果某个企业可以成立类似工具共享会的一个组织，让你可以在申请之后借用你所需要的东西，那么基本上，拥有自己的割草机就真不是那么有意义了。

"I think one of the biggest trends of the next decade—and beyond—is also one of our greatest hopes for a post-scarcity economy6). As technology makes sharing the use of physical as well as virtual objects more practicable, we"ll be seeing less need for people to own individual "stuff" and more opportunities to amortize7) costs across groups. Essentially, it amounts to more sharing through rentals, co-ops8) and so forth. If you need to use a lawnmower for three hours a week, basically, it really doesn"t make a lot of sense to own your own lawnmower when you can go in with your neighbors and buy several to share—or when a business can set up something like a tool club, where you subscribe9) and then borrow what you need.

“随着一个个共享自行车和共享汽车平台的诞生，我们在城市中心已经可以看到很多这类共享经济形式了。你甚至还可以注册使用共享衣橱的平台。随着追踪和共享实用物品的技术不断进步，我期待它也能向人口不那么稠密的地区渗透。”

"We"re already seeing a good deal of this in urban centers, with bike-sharing and car-sharing programs. There are even wardrobe-sharing programs one can subscribe to. As the technology for tracking and sharing useful objects improves, I expect it to infiltrate10) less densely populated areas, as well."

6. post-scarcity economy: 后稀缺经济，是一种假设性的经济模式。在这种情况下，人们只需付出极小的努力便可获取极其丰富的商品，从而使得所有人都能以极其低廉的价格甚至是无偿拥有这些商品。

scarcity [?ske?s?ti] n. 缺乏；不足

7. amortize [??m??ta?z] vt. 分期偿还

8. co-op [?k?? ?p] n. 合作商店；合作性商业机构

9. subscribe [s?b?skra?b] vi. 申请；预订

10. infiltrate [??nf?ltre?t] vt. 渗入；渗透

Connected health care will occur at a whole new level. (互联网医疗保健将会达到一个全新的高度。)

—Brenda Cooper, author of Edge of Dark (《黑暗的边缘》的作者布伦达·库珀)

“互联网医疗保健将会达到一个全新的高度。我睡醒后会给狗狗喂专门为她定制的食物吃。当狗粮在水中溶解时，我将从我的手腕或者冰箱的小屏幕上查看我自己的各项身体指标。它们会告诉我那天早上应该补充哪些物质以及它们的剂量。我会按照要求取出所需的量，就着一大杯冰水把它吃掉，然后再喝我的晨间咖啡。之后，我会带着狗狗们一起去跑步，我可以用我的联网太阳镜了解我们的心率。我们到达公园后，我会关掉所有设备，扔个飞盘给狗追，享受长长的冥想时刻。接着我们会打开设备，查看一下它是建议我们跑步回家还是走路回家。

"Connected health care will occur at a whole new level. When I wake up, I"ll feed the dog special food designed for her. While it"s hydrating11), I"ll check my own readouts12) from my wrist or from a small screen on the fridge. That will tell me which supplements to take that morning, and in what dosages13). I"ll measure that out and have it with a tall glass of cool water before my morning coffee. After that, the dogs and I will run, and I"ll be able to use my connected sunglasses to keep track of both of our heart rates. When we arrive at the park, I"ll turn everything off and enjoy some long moments of meditation14) while I throw a Frisbee15) for the dog, and then we"ll turn back on and check in for advice about whether to run or walk back home.

“那天早上晚些时候，我会收到一条提示，说一个癌症标志物重新出现在了我的血液中，马上会安排一项特别的化验。我会感觉手腕上有轻微的刺痛感。一小时之后，化验结果会传到一台机器中，然后排队等待分析。等待分析要排几个小时的队，所以我将试着忽略自己的恐惧，但我却惨败了——我摔倒在去办公室的最后一级台阶上，不得不停下脚步。我一动不动地站了一会儿，缓了几口气，然后告诉自己我很好，所以现在要去工作了。等到吃午餐时，我的分析结果将会送到，我会得知从化验数据来看没有什么需要担心的，但是一条记录已经发送到我的个人诊断机上，以增加一项更加细致的检查；另外，有两种食物已经从给我推荐的食谱里被拿掉了。”

"Later that morning, I"ll get an alert that a cancer marker has shown back up in my bloodstream, and a special test will be ordered right there. I"ll feel a light prick16) in my wrist. An hour later the results will go into a machine and queue up for an analytics run. The line will be a few hours long, so I"ll try and ignore my fear, but fail hard enough that I fall down the last stair to my office, and have to catch myself17). After standing still for a moment and catching my breath, I"ll be told I"m okay, and so I"ll go to work. By lunch, my analytic results will be available and I"ll learn that there is no statistical reason for worry, but that a note had been sent to my personal diagnostics machinery to add a more refined18) test and that two foods have been removed from my recommended diet."

11. hydrate [?ha?dre?t] vi. 成水合物

12. readout [?ri?da?t] n. (计算机屏幕上的)信息读出

13. dosage [?d??s?d?] n. (通常指药的)剂量

14. meditation [?med??te??n] n. 冥想；沉思

15. Frisbee [?fr?zbi] n. (投掷游戏用的)飞盘，飞碟

16. prick [pr?k] n. 针刺感；刺痛感

17. catch oneself: 突然中止说或做(某事)

18. refined [r??fa?nd] adj. 精细的；准确的

AI19) will have a significant impact on the labor market. (人工智能将对劳动力市场产生重大影响。)

—Ken Liu, author of The Grace of Kings (《国王的恩典》的作者刘宇昆)

“人工智能不一定要在通过图灵测试后才会对劳动力市场产生重大影响。新闻机构已经从自动化分析和生成报道中受益。鉴于许多办公室工作所涉及的内容不外乎是把数字和表格改写为老生常谈的乏味文章，所以不难想象在十年之后，自动化技术会在内容生产方面取得更大的进步，并取代许多今天要依靠人类来完成的基础写作和分析类工作。

"It is not necessary for AI to pass the Turing Test20) to have a significant impact on the labor market. News organizations are already benefitting from automated analysis and story generation. Since many office jobs involve not much more than recasting21) numbers and charts in formulaic22) prose23), it"s not hard to imagine that in 10 years automation will make more progress in content generation and replace much of the basic writing and analysis we rely on humans to do today.

“同样地，自动化技术还将彻底改变运输业。即使大多数车主出于心理上的原因仍然选择驾驶自己的汽车出行，货车运输业将会使用自动驾驶的车辆，以增加安全性、提高效率(自动驾驶车辆可没有需要睡觉的人类司机)，并降低成本。”

"Similarly, automation will transform the transportation industry. Even if most car owners prefer to continue to drive their own vehicles for psychological reasons, the trucking industry will adopt automated vehicles to improve safety, increase efficiency (automated cars don"t have drivers who need to sleep), and reduce costs."

19. AI: (= artificial intelligence)人工智能

20. Turing Test: 图灵测试是指测试者在与被测试者(一个人和一台机器)隔开的情况下，通过一些装置(如键盘)向被测试者随意提问。进行多次测试后，如果有超过30%的测试者不能确定被测试者是人还是机器，那么这台机器就通过了测试，并被认为具有人类智能。

21. recast [?ri??kɑ?st] vt. 改写

22. formulaic [?f??mju?le??k] adj. (话语等)老一套的，老生常谈的

23. prose [pr??z] n. 乏味的话(或文章)

We will see a deeper bifurcation24) when it comes to technology. (当谈到科技时，我们会看到人类的分歧越来越大。)

—Edan Lepucki, author of California (《加利福尼亚》的作者伊丹·勒普基)

在接下来的十年里，当谈到科技时，我们会看到人类的分歧越来越大。社会中的一部分人会变得越来越依赖电脑等电子设备，甚至还会给自己的孩子植入微芯片，在自己的眼球里装入电话；另一部分人则会完全避免使用科技，并呼吁在公共场所设置无电话区、在餐厅里设置无烟区。在这十年快要过去时，有人会尝试与机器人结婚。各个网站将不得不寻求一个可持续的盈利模式来向其作者支付稿酬。我儿子会长成翩翩少年。我将需要戴老花镜来阅读所有那些肯定会出版的精彩小说。”

"Over the next 10 years, we will see a deeper bifurcation when it comes to technology. One segment of the society will become more and more reliant on computers and such, going so far as to embed microchips in their children and phones in their own eyeballs; others will avoid technology altogether and will advocate for no-phone-use zones in public areas and non-smoking sections at restaurants. By the end of the decade, someone will try to marry a robot. Websites will be forced to find a sustainable revenue model for paying their writers. My son will be a teenager. I will need reading glasses to read all the terrific novels that are sure to be published."

你觉得十年以后的世界将是怎样的？

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本文选自《新东方英语·中学生》2017年9月号，原文标题Five Science Fiction Writers Predict How Our World Will Change in the Next 10 Years，作者Maddie Crum。