拥有上帝之手的不仅是马拉多纳，但NBA所有人都恨这一投 In the Age of Curry and Smarter Stat

In the Age of Curry and Smarter Stats, Players Still Hate the Desperation Heave.

在

库里

和高阶数据的时代，球员仍然痛恨超远距离投篮。

The numbers don"t lie: Last season, Stephen Curry was one of the worst long-range shooters in the NBA.

数据不说谎：上赛季，斯蒂芬·库里是NBA远距离投篮最差的投手之一。

During the 2016-17 season, Curry shot an abysmal .067 in a specific category: shots taken from half court or beyond in the final seconds of the first, second or third quarter. Per Basketball Reference, Curry attempted nearly twice as many such "heaves" (15) as any other player. He made just one, a running 50-footer against the Clippers that just beat the halftime buzzer. It was also the second straight season in which he led the NBA in such attempts.

2016-17赛季，库里在一个特定区域投出了极为糟糕的6.7%命中率：第一节，第二节或第三节最后时刻半场或半场以外的投篮。根据Basketball Reference的数据，这种被称为“heave”的投篮，库里15次的出手数接近其他任何球员的两倍。但他只命中了其中一个，也就是对快船的比赛中场结束前50英尺的跑投。这也是他连续第二个赛季在heave的出手数上领衔全联盟。

What started as a pet peeve for this particular writer eventually morphed into a modest quest: To figure out why some players refuse to shoot the ball in the closing seconds of a quarter or half. To that question, the seemingly obvious answer—they"re protecting their shooting percentage, duh—proved to be the correct one. But it also led to more questions, like: Why do some players seem to love hoisting these types of shots? Is this something coaches talk about, or even consider? And how is it, at a time when analytics have made everyone infinitely smarter about what stats actually measure, that a player would turn down a risk-free opportunity to throw the ball toward the hoop?

我们最初认为的无法忍受的事实，最终变成了一个合理的诉求：我们想搞清楚，为什么有些球员会在节末或者中场结束前拒绝投篮。答案似乎很明显：他们想保护自己的投篮命中率——这就是正确答案。但这也会带来新的问题，比如说，为什么有球员愿意投这种球？教练会谈论，甚至考虑这种投篮吗？在一个数据分析让每个人都清楚哪些数据更重要的时代，为什么有球员愿意拒绝无风险的机会而把球扔向篮筐呢？

The answers, based on a sampling of players around the league, are at once crystal clear and (sort of) complicated. But at least part of it has to do with the fact that coaches are hardly thinking about it.

根据联盟中一些球员样本，这个答案既清晰，又复杂。但至少有一部分原因是，教练很少会考虑这个问题。

"I"ve never been coached on that," Washington point guard Tim Frazier said.

“我从来没得到过这方面的指教。”奇才控卫蒂姆·弗雷泽表示。

"Coaches don"t really say anything about it," Mavericks forward Doug McDermott said.

“教练不太说这个问题。”独行侠前锋道格·麦克德莫特说。

"Every staff I"ve ever been a part of, you go over all the different situations in the course of a season," Grizzlies assistant Bob Bender said. "That"s one that"s probably never been a priority."

“我参加过的每一个教练组，会思考赛季里面临的各种问题。”灰熊助教鲍勃·本德尔说，“但超远距离投篮从来没被重点考虑过。”

A member on Indiana"s 1976 national championship team, former Duke assistant under Mike Krzyzewski and ex-head coach at Illinois State and Washington, Bender has worked as an assistant for five NBA teams over the past 16 years. He says that from the coaches" perspective, the rarity of such possessions—just one per game in college, and three per game in the pros—and the slim chance of making any shot from beyond half court means such scenarios are hardly worth spending valuable prep time on.

本德尔是1976年夺得全美国冠军的印第安纳大学的一员，他在杜克的K教练手下做过助教，也在伊利诺伊州大和华盛顿大学做过主教练，过去16年，他在五支NBA球队做过助教。本德尔表示，站在教练角度，这种回合的罕见性——大学比赛里平均每场比赛只有一次，职业比赛场均三次——以及命中半场投篮极低的可能性，使得球队根本不值得专门花时间准备这种出手。

"You try to cover everything," Bender said with a laugh, "but you don"t cover everything."

“你想面面俱到，但面面俱到是不可能的。”本德尔笑着说。

A coach might make an exception, Bender added, if a player passed up an obvious chance to get a shot off at a potential turning point in a game. Take the following scenario Bender laid out: "End of the third quarter, other team"s on a run, they miss, and you get the rebound—but you don"t shoot it. At that point it might be something you"d highlight after the game, to say, "Next time, just put it up. That might be a little bit of momentum. You never know.""

本德尔补充，教练也许会允许例外存在，也就是不允许球员放弃一个能够扭转比赛气势的机会。本德尔举了一个例子。“第三节最后，对手发起快攻，但是没有进球。你拿到了篮球，但没有出手投篮。这种情况下，你可能会在赛后着重强调这个问题，比如说，‘下次记得投篮，可能有扭转气势的机会，谁知道呢。’”

It"s hardly an untested hypothesis. Two years ago in Memphis, the Grizzlies were facing an eight-point deficit going into the fourth quarter against Minnesota. At least, they were until Vince Carter helped force a driving Tyus Jones into a turnover, corralled the ball near his own baseline and looked to the game clock at the opposite end of the court. Judging that he had enough time, Carter dribbled once, gathered the ball and shot in stride.

这也不能说是未经检测的假设。两年前在孟菲斯，在与森林狼的比赛中，灰熊面临着以8分劣势进入第四节的可能。至少在文斯·卡特逼迫突破的泰厄斯·琼斯出现失误，在己方底线拿到球看向对面场地的计时器时，场上局势便是如此。卡特判断时间足够，于是他运了一下球，拿起球后一个大跨步，将球扔了出去。

The 73-foot heave was perfect, cutting the lead to five and sparking a 12-3 Memphis run. Talking to reporters after his team"s come-from-behind 109-104 win, Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley said, "We call that the game-changer."

这个长达73英尺的heave投篮非常完美，帮助灰熊将比分差距缩小到5分的同时，随后引领了一波12比3的攻击高潮。灰熊后来居上，109比104战胜森林狼，灰熊控卫迈克·康利赛后告诉记者：“我们说那是改变比赛的一球。”

Carter has hit a few such heaves in his career. So has the Pistons" Andre Drummond (albeit on far fewer attempts from outside the paint). Detroit"s All-Star big man told Bleacher Reporter that his most memorable heave came against Boston in December 2015. Pulling down a defensive rebound with a shade over four seconds left in the half, Drummond turned, took four confident dribbles and pulled up just behind half court—right over the head of Isaiah Thomas. Swish.

卡特职业生涯中投进过几次这样的球，活塞的安德烈·德拉蒙德也是(尽管他在油漆区外的出手要少得多)。作为底特律的全明星球员，德拉蒙德说，他记忆最深的heave出自2015年12月与凯尔特人的比赛。拿下防守篮板，距离半场比赛结束还剩四秒。转身后，德拉蒙德自信地运了四次球，在中线附近，在伊赛亚·托马斯的头顶出手。皮球应声入网。

Drummond says he savors the memory because "I did it so casually, like I kind of just walked up and shot a jump shot." But he remembers its impact, too: The shot gave Detroit a three-point halftime lead. The Pistons went on to win 119-116.

德拉蒙德说他会永远记住那个瞬间，因为“那球我很随意，就像完成跳投。”但德拉蒙德也记住了那一球的影响：活塞因此半场领先3分，他们最终119比116赢下了比赛。

"I think Steph has changed all that," Frazier said of Curry. "He"s been shooting it from so deep that it feels normal now." A former Trail Blazer, Frazier cites his ex-teammates Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum as other guys unafraid to "pull up right as they come across half court," but Curry is clearly the player most responsible for the expansion of acceptable range.

“我觉得是斯蒂芬改变了一切。”弗雷泽提到了库里，“他在特别远的位置投篮，让现在的人觉得这种出手很正常。”曾经效力于开拓者的弗雷泽提到了前队友达米恩·利拉德和C.J.麦科勒姆，说他们也是“不害怕在半场附近出手的人”。但让外界能够接受的距离越来越远，库里显然是始作俑者。

It might be the NBA"s worst-kept secret, but yes, players are mindful of their shooting statistics. In such moments, many opt to protect that number at the expense of a low-percentage three that might or might not have an impact on the outcome of a game. Some players are reluctant to reveal the guilty for fear of violating an unspoken honor code. But for others, the secret is out.

这也许是NBA保守最差的秘密，球员们确实在意他们的投篮数据。在这种时候，很多人会选择保护自己的数据，避免出现三分命中率低降的情况，而且这种出手对比赛结果未必能产生影响。有些球员不愿意透露打破心照不宣的罪恶感或恐惧感。但对其他人来说，这已经不是秘密了。

After a comfortable January win over Sacramento, Lakers coach Luke Walton good-naturedly sold out Kyle Kuzma, telling reporters that the promising rookie wanted it known that one of his turnovers came on a shot-clock violation in the game"s meaningless closing seconds. When Walton told Kuzma he should"ve shot the ball, Kuzma admitted he didn"t want to hurt his percentage.

一月舒畅地战胜国王后，湖人主教练卢克·沃顿出于好意“出卖了”凯尔·库兹马。他告诉记者，这名新秀想让别人知道，他因为违反进攻时限而发生的失误是出现在没有意义的最后几秒。当沃顿告诉库兹马他应当出手时，库兹马承认，他不想降低自己的命中率。

Ivan Johnson was a member of the Hawks when Bender was on Atlanta"s staff. Bender remembers how the bruising forward would regularly practice shots from three-quarter court. "And he was so strong," Bender said, "it really wasn"t a "heave." If he got a defensive rebound, and there were any ticks on the clock, he was going."

本德尔在老鹰工作时，伊万·约翰逊是老鹰成员。本德尔记得他经常在距离篮筐3/4场地的地方练习投篮。“他太强壮了。”本德尔说，“对他来说那不算heave。如果他拿下后场篮板，如果时间快到了，他就会出手。”

McDermott said that as a rule, "big guys don"t care" about the impact of an occasional heave on their shooting stats and cited his former teammate Taj Gibson as a big who "dreamed of those situations.

麦克德莫特说，这是规则，“大个子不在乎”偶尔的heave对他们投篮数据的影响。他举出前队友泰·吉布森的例子，说他“梦想着投出那种球”。

In a 10-month span last year, Gibson got to display both extremes of his carefree approach to heaves. In March, just a week after being traded to Oklahoma City, Gibson intercepted an attempted full-court pass at the end of the half and fired a high, perfect lob back from the top of his own key that found nothing but net. Then came this past December, when Gibson (by then in Minnesota), grabbed a defensive rebound in the closing seconds of the half and heaved again, this time from practically under his own basket.

在去年10个月时间里，吉布森展示了不在乎heave的两极状态。去年3月，被交易到雷霆后仅一周，吉布森在半场结束前抢断了一个全场传球，在己方半场罚球线附近，他投出了一个完美弧线，球空心入网。到了去年12月，吉布森(那时已经在森林狼了)在半场快结束时拿下一个防守篮板，他又一次投出了heave，这次的出手位置几乎在己方篮下。

TV cameras memorably caught Gibson"s teammate, Jimmy Butler, asking "What the f--k was that?" Gibson could be seen smiling and laughing as he jogged to the locker room for halftime.

电视工作者捕捉到吉布森的队友吉米·巴特勒嘟囔“这XX到底的什么”的样子。半场跑回更衣室的路上，吉布森很明显在微笑。

So let most of the league"s best shooters avoid the heave (Steph Curry notably excepted). Let characters like Johnson and Gibson shoot them conscience-free, and let All-Stars like Drummond take his chances on the rare moments he has a reason to shoot from beyond 12 feet. "I just do it for fun," Drummond said. "It"s just believing in myself and putting it up."

就让联盟大多数优秀投手避免heave吧(库里显然是个例外)。让约翰逊和吉布森这样没有心理压力的球员去投吧，让德拉蒙德这样的全明星球员抓住这种绝少的机会，成就梦想吧。“我为了开心才投的，”德拉蒙德说，“就是相信自己，然后出手。”

Drummond still remembers his first heave—not the specific opponent, but a game early in his high school career, the shot coming from about half court. "I was really young," he says. "It felt like the greatest moment of my life."

德拉蒙德还记得自己的第一个heave——具体对手不记得了，那发生在高中生涯初期，他在半场左右出手投篮。“我年纪真的很小。”他说，“那感觉是我人生中最自豪的时刻。”