2017年12月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数发布 2017年12月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济

一、指数概览

2017年12月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得31.4，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为31.4%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月上升1.1个百分点（图1）。本月NEI的上升主要来自科技投入的增加。

NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。

二、主要分项指标

NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2017年12月NEI的上升主要来自科技投入的增加。科技投入指数从今年6月起显示出较强的增长趋势，12月在11月回落后重新上涨，指数录得32.3，环比上升3.2。资本投入指数近半年波动较大，本月指数录得32.6，环比上升1.2。劳动力投入指数仍然平稳发展，本月略微下降，指数录得29.6（图2）。

考虑对应权重，劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化对NEI变化分别贡献-0.1，0.4，和0.8个百分点，总计1.1个百分点（图3）。

分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2017年12月为总指数贡献了10个百分点；本月名次上升较快的行业为新能源产业，贡献率为5.6个百分点，位列第二名；生物医药产业贡献率排名下降最多，从上月的第二名下降至本月第四名，贡献率为3.3个百分点（图4）。

三、新经济就业

2017年12月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平比上月有较大的提升，为每月10261元，较上月增长139元，达到有史以来最高值（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。

2017年12月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例略有下降，为28.9，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重也略有下降，为30.3%。新经济行业的平均入职工资水平仍高于全国平均入职工资水平。2017年12月新经济入职工资“溢价”为5.1%，高于上月4.8%（图6）。近半年新经济行业的平均工资溢价总体仍低于上半年新经济行业的平均工资溢价，但开始出现回升迹象。

四、分地区工资变化

2017年，中国的分地区工资变化出现了分化的现象（图7）。全国工资增长最快的地区，第一到第五名分别是合肥、徐州、常州、重庆、扬州，这些地区可以说是原本的二线工业城市，大部分处于沿海到中西部之间。另外，哈尔滨、长春等东北城市的工资也增长很快，这可能意味着东北开始进入复苏区间。

而在工资增长最慢的城市中，上海独占鳌头，2017年新增就业的工资甚至低于2016年，惠州、珠海、无锡、杭州、中山等紧随其后。与工资增长最快的地区相比，工资增长最慢的地区集中于原本的沿海工业城市中。

将两个现象合并起来，结合我们在去年的数个新经济指数报告中发现的现象，我们或许能得出一个结论——中国的经济周期已经开始从沿海城市向内转移。而对于沿海城市来说，这可能会为新经济增长留出空间。

五、分城市航班流量变化

2017年分城市的航班情况变化如下图（图8），将2017年第四季度的每日航班净流入人数减去2016年第四季度的每日航班净流入人数，我们得到了人口净流入的增量。可以看到，去年人口增长较快的一些明星城市，比如武汉、长沙、贵阳、南宁、郑州等，人口净流入量出现了减少。而昆明、北京、成都、广州、上海等则出现了人口净流入的上升。

六、从新增企业数据看投资行业变化

使用新增企业数据，我们可以对各行业新增企业占总新增企业比重进行监测，见图9。

排名上升的行业包括以下几类——建筑工程，从去年12月的第24名上升至2017年12月的第11名，占比上升75.5%，是本月排名和占比上升最多的行业；建材，从去年12月的第20名上升至2017年12月的第12名，占比上升50.6%；种植，从去年12月的第25名上升至2017年12月的第20名，占比上升67.5%；装饰，从去年12月的第9名上升至2017年12月的第7名，占比上升18.9%。此外，工程、汽车、餐饮和农业的排名也有所上升。

排名下降的行业包括以下几类——传播，从2016年12月的第14名下降至2017年12月的第22名，占比下降27.4%，是本月排名和占比下降最多的行业；销售，从2016年12月的第12名下降至2017年12月的第15名，占比下降8.5%；物流，从去年12月的第17名下降为第25名，占比下降6.1%；电子商务，从2016年12月的第13名下降至2017年12月的第17名，占比下降16.8%；信息，从2016年12月的第10名下降至2017年12月的第13名，占比下降17.5%。除此之外，网络科技、教育、文化、房地产和咨询行业的排名也有所下降。

七、城市新经济排名

2017年12月新经济总量城市排名前20名如图10所示，北京、上海、广州、杭州、南京排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。

图11计算了2017年4月到2017年12月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、杭州、上海、南京、厦门。

更多咨询敬请联络:

万事达卡

大中华区公共关系副总经理吴焕宇

电话：+86-10-8519-9304

电邮：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com

财新智库

财新智库高级经济学家王喆

电话：+86-10-8590-5019

电邮：zhewang@caixin.com

公关总监马玲

电话：+86-10-8590-5204

电邮：lingma@caixin.com

BBD（数联铭品）

BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家陈沁

电话：+86-28-6529-0823

电邮：chenqin@bbdservice.com

版权声明

万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。

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December 2017

Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index

Overview

In December 2017, the Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 31.4, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 31.4% of overall economic input activities that month, up 1.1 ppts from November (Chart 1). The rising NEI was due to the increase of technology input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light; 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.

Primary Inputs

The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index, respectively. The rise in the December NEI reading came from the increase of technology inputs (Chart 2). Technology input index showed strong growth trend. After declining in November, it increased to 32.3 this month, with 3.2 MoM increase. Capital investment fluctuated widely in the recent half year. In December, it continued to rise to 32.6, with 1.2 MoM increase. Labor input index remained stable with slightly decrease to 29.6.

Taking the weight into account, percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.1, 0.4, and 0.8 ppts, respectively. The net NEI change was 1.1 ppts in total (Chart 3).

Looking at the sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 10 ppts to NEI. New Energy was the industry with fast growth in December, contributing 5.6 ppts and ranking the second. Biotech came fourth from second, the biggest drop in ranking, contributing 3.3 ppts in December (Chart 4).

New Economy Employment

In December 2017, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,261 per month, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 10,122 and reaching the highest level since 2016 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands.

Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 28.9% of total hiring in December, slightly lower than the previous month’s 29.2%. At the same time, the total compensation share of New Economy sectors decreased slightly to 30.3%, which meant the average entry salary level of New Economy was higher than national average entry wage level. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 5.1% as compared to economy-wide counterparts, increasing from 4.8% in November (Chart 6). In the recent half year, the average salary premium of the New Economy was lower than the first half year generally, while we saw an uptrend.

In 2017, the changes of average salaries in different cities diverged. The top five cities with the fastest growth in average salary were Hefei, Xuzhou, Changzhou, Chongqing and Yangzhou (Chart 7), most of which were second-tier industrial cities located in east coast and midwest of China. In addition, the average salaries in northeastern cities such as Harbin and Changchun also rose rapidly, which might indicate a recovering northeastern economy.

Among the cities with the slowest growth in average salary, Shanghai ranked the first, which saw a decrease of average salary for new employees in 2017. Shanghai was followed by Huizhou, Zhuhai, Wuxi, Hangzhou and Zhongshan. Most of cities with slow growth were traditionally coastal industrial cities.

Combining the results and our findings in previous reports, we might observe the business cycle began to shift geographically from coast to inland. This might make room for growth of New Economy in coastal cities.

Change of Passengers Inflow Based on Major Ariports

We tracked the change of daily passengers inflow at major airports in 2017 (Chart 8). We calculate the changes of net daily passengers inflow average by subtracting daily net passengers inflow average in 4Q16 from that in 4Q17. Based on the methodology, we got the growth in daily net passengers inflow. Some cities with the fastest population growth in 2016 experienced decrease in net inflows, such as Wuhan, Changsha, Guiyang, Nanning and Zhengzhou. Other cities like Kunming, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou and Shanghai experienced increase in net inflows.

Decomposition of New Established Enterprises

We use newly-established enterprises data to monitor new enterprises in sub-sectors (Chart 9).

Ranking up sub-sectors (from December 2016 to December 2017) include the following. Architectural Engineering (No.24 to No.11, 75.5% increase in proportion, the fastest growth sector in terms of ranking in December), Meterials (No.20 to No.12, 50.6% increase in proportion), Farming (No.25 to No.20, 67.5% increase in proportion), Decoration (No.9 to No.7, 18.9% increase in proportion). In addition, Engineering, Automobile, Catering and Agriculture saw a ranking up as well.

Ranking down sub-sectors (from December 2016 to December 2017) include the following. Communication (No.14 to No.22, 27.4% decrease in proportion, the largest drop this month), Sales (No.12 to No.15, 8.5% decrease in proportion), Logistics (No.17 to No.25, 6.1% decrease in proportion), E-commerce (No.13 to No.17, 16.8% decrease in proportion), Information (No.10 to No.13, 17.5% decrease in proportion). The other ranking down sub-sectors were IT, Education, Culture, Real Estate and Consulting.

City Rankings of the New Economy

Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Nanjing. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.

Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between April 2017 and December 2017. The top five cities were Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Nanjing and Xiamen.

For further information please contact:

MasterCard

Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications

Tel：+86-10-8519-9304

Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com

Caixin Insight Group

Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist

Tel：+86-10-8590-5019

Emails：zhewang@caixin.com

Ma Ling, Public Relations

Tel：+86-10-8590-5204

Email：lingma@caixin.com

BBD

Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist

Tel：+86-28-6529-0823

Emails：chenqin@bbdservice.com

The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

About Caixin

Caixin Media is China"s leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.

About MasterCard

MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.

About BBD (Business Big Data)

BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.