2017年10月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数发布本月NEI比上月下降0.3个百分点

一、指数概览

2017年10月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得29.3，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为29.3%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月下降0.3个百分点，指数连续两个月跌到30以下（图1）。本月NEI的下降主要来自科技投入的减少。

NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。

二、主要分项指标

NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2017年10月NEI的下降主要来自科技投入的减少。科技投入指数从今年6月起显示出较强的增长趋势，9月达到最高值36.3，本月有所下降，指数录得30.5。资本投入指数近半年波动较大，2017年9月有较大的回落，本月略微回升至27.4，环比上升2.8。劳动力投入指数仍然平稳发展，本月有小幅上升，指数录得30.1（图2）。

劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为0.1，1.0，和-1.5个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2017年10月NEI变化的贡献值为-0.4（图3）。

分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2017年10月为总指数贡献了10.4个百分点；本月名次上升较快的行业为科学研究和技术服务业和节能与环保业，分别贡献率为1.5、2.1个百分点，位列第七、第六名；新能源产业贡献率排名下降最多，从上月的第二名下降至本月第八名，贡献率为0.5个百分点（图4）。

三、新经济就业

2017年10月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平比上月有较大的提升，为每月9950元，较上月增长450元，达到有史以来最高值（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。

2017年10月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例保持不变，仍然为29.4，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重略有下降，为30.8%，这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平出现下降。2017年10月新经济入职工资“溢价”为4.4%，低于上月5.6%（图6）。最近半年新经济行业的平均工资溢价总体低于此前半年新经济行业的平均工资溢价。

四、制造业企业吸纳就业情况

本月，我们将新经济指数中的劳动力微观数据与2013年规模以上工业企业名单进行匹配，计算不同规模以上工业企业在近几年的招聘变化。以2013年规模以上工业企业名单作为基准，按照这些企业在2013年的规模从小到大划分为20档，研究发现，规模最大的企业在2017年10月吸纳的就业比例要远大于2016年10月。其中，规模最大的两档企业（即规模最大的最高10%）在2017年10月吸收了当月规上新增总就业的30%，而在2016年10月，这个数字仅为20%（图7）。

另外，以2013年规模以上工业企业名单作为基准，按照这些企业在2013年的资本劳动比（本年折旧除以本年职工薪酬）从小到大划分为20档，我们发现，相比于2017年，轻资产工业企业在2015、2016年吸纳了更多的就业人员。2016年，资本劳动比最低的25%企业吸纳劳动力占比为27.5%，高于2015年的26.4%，而2017年该比例上升趋势逆转，下降为24.3%。对于资本劳动比例最高的25%企业则出现了相反的现象，从2015年到2017年，吸纳的劳动占比分别为21.2%，20.3%和24.6%。资本占比偏大的企业重新吸纳了较多的就业人员（图8）。

五、从劳动力数据看投资复苏

本月，我们继续使用劳动力大数据对目前的投资进行分析，使用中国每月的房地产开发投资完成额当月值与劳动力数据建筑类就业人员的需求占比进行比较。2017年个别月份的建筑类就业相关人员预测稍有偏差，但从整体来看仍然印证了我们的大数据指标准确性，9月的建筑类就业人员占比为6.27%，环比下降1.5%，同时9月的房地产投资完成额当月值为11150亿元，高于8月的9733亿元，环比上升14.56%。

本月，建筑类劳动人员的需求有所上升，相关就业人员比例为7.48%，环比上升1.21%，考虑到该大数据指标在过去大部分时间段的准确性，我们预测下一个月的房地产投资数据会继续上升。

七、城市新经济排名

2017年10月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，上海、广州、北京、杭州、南京排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。

图11计算了2017年4月到2017年10月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、上海、杭州、厦门、南京。

更多咨询敬请联络:

万事达卡

公共关系副总裁吴焕宇

电话：+86-10-8519-9304

电邮：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com

财新智库

财新智库高级经济学家王喆

电话：+86-10-8590-5019

电邮：zhewang@caixin.com

公关总监马玲

电话：+86-10-8590-5204

电邮：lingma@caixin.com

BBD（数联铭品）

BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家陈沁

电话：+86-28-6529-0823

电邮：chenqin@bbdservice.com

版权声明

万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。

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October 2017

MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index

Overview

In October 2017, the Mastercard Caixin-BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 29.3, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 29.3% of overall economic input activities that month, down 0.3 ppts from September, dropping below 30 for two consecutive months (Chart 1). New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light; 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.

Primary Inputs

The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weight of the index, respectively. The decline in the October NEI reading came from the decrease of technology inputs (Chart 2). Technology input index showed strong growth trend since June and reached the highest (36.3) in September. It was 30.5 in October, decreasing sharply from previous month. Capital investment fluctuated widely in the recent half year, and went down significantly after a three-month growth in September. It rebounded to 27.4, with 2.8 MoM increase. Labor input index remained stable with slightly increase to 30.1.

Percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were 0.1, 1.0, and -1.5 ppts, respectively. After accounting for the sum of their weights, the net NEI change was a -0.4 ppts decrease from September (Chart 3).

Looking at the sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 10.4 ppts to NEI. Science Research & Hi-tech Services and Energy Conservation & Environmental Protection were industries with relatively faster growth in October, contributing 1.5 and 2.1 ppts and ranking the seventh and sixth, respectively. New Energy’s contribution declined sharply from second to eighth, contributing 0.5 ppts in October (Chart 4).

New Economy Employment

In October 2017, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 9,950 per month, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 9,500 and reaching the highest level since 2016 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands.

Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 29.4% of total hiring in October, the same level as the previous month. At the same time, the compensation share of New Economy sectors decreased slightly to 30.8%, which meant the average entry salary level of New Economy declined compared to national average entry wage level. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 4.4% as compared to economy-wide counterparts, decreasing from 10% in September (Chart 6). In the recent half year, the average salary premium of the New Economy was lower than the first half year in general.

Job Created by Industrial Enterprises with Above Designated Size

We matched employers in NEI’s labor big data with list of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2013, and calculated the recruitment percentage of enterprises of different sizes in recent three years. We categorized industrial enterprises above designated size in 2013 into 20 subgroups by their revenues. The first subgroup consisted of enterprises with 5% lowest revenues and the 20th subgroup covered the largest 5%. Statistics indicated that the larger enterprises absorbed more new employees in October 2017 than in October 2016. In October 2017, 30% of new jobs were created by the largest 10% companies, while the number was merely 20% in October 2016.

In addition, industrial enterprises were categorized into 20 subgroups by capital-to-labor ratios. We found capital light industrial enterprises created more jobs in 2015 and 2016. In 2016, 27.5% of jobs were created by 25% of the companies with the lowest capital-to-labor ratios. In 2017, it shrank to 24.3% and more jobs were posted by capital intensive enterprises (Chart 8).

Recovery in Investment Based on Employment Data

We use monthly completed investment in real estate development and demand for construction employees to analyze the current state of investment (Chart 9). The demand for construction employees and completed investment in real estate development showed a similar trend. They synchronized in most times, although diverging recently. In September 2017, ratio of demand for construction employees reached 6.27%, a MoM decrease by 1.5%. At the same time, the completed investment in real estate development in September was RMB 1.1 trillion, an increase from RMB 0.97 trillion in August, or a 14.56% MoM increase.

This month starts seeing increase in demand for construction employees, reaching the level at 7.48%, with a 1.21% MoM increase. Given the historical accuracy of the index, we predict that real estate investment increases next month.

City Rankings of the New Economy

Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities are Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Nanjing. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.

Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between April 2017 and October 2017. The top five cities are Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Xiamen and Nanjing.

For further information please contact:

MasterCard

Mr. Wu Huanyu, Vice President of Public Relations

Tel：+86-10-8519-9304

Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com

Caixin Insight Group

Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist

Tel：+86-10-8590-5019

Emails：zhewang@caixin.com

Ma Ling, Public Relations

Tel：+86-10-8590-5204

Email：lingma@caixin.com

BBD

Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist

Tel：+86-28-6529-0823

Emails：chenqin@bbdservice.com

The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

About Caixin

Caixin Media is China"s leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.

About MasterCard

MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.

About BBD (Business Big Data)

BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.