美联储新任主席：联邦基金利率进一步逐步上涨将最有助于实现我们

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联邦基金利率进一步逐步上涨将最有助于实现我们的目标--美联储主席

杰罗姆H.鲍威尔

美联储主席杰罗姆H.鲍威尔

注释：《

美联储法》要求美国联邦储备委员会向国会提交书面报告，其中包含有关“货币政策和经济发展及未来前景”的讨论。

这份名为“货币政策报告”的报告每半年提交给参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会，以及众议院金融服务委员会，与这份报告共同提交的，还有美国联邦储备委员会主席的证词，以下的内容就是美联储新任主席

杰罗姆H.鲍威尔的证词。

来源：美联储网站

文本由Google翻译，我们编辑时稍作改动

在我作为美联储主席首次出席这个委员会之际，我要表达我对我的前任主席珍妮特·耶伦和她的重要贡献的感谢。在她担任主席期间，经济持续强劲，美联储决策者开始使利率水平和资产负债表规模均正常化。耶伦主席和我共同努力确保顺利进行领导层转型并为货币政策提供连续性。我也想对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的同事表示我的感谢。最后，我想确认我继续支持国会赋予我们的目标 - 最大限度的就业和价格稳定性 - 以及美联储政策和计划的透明度。透明度是我们问责制的基础，我致力于清楚地解释我们在做什么以及为什么要这样做。今天我将简要讨论当前的经济形势和展望，然后再转向货币政策。

众议院金融服务委员会主席

Hensarling

当前经济形势与展望

美国经济在2017年下半年和今年增长稳健。从7月到12月，月平均就业人数增加179,000人，1月份就业人数再增加20万人。就业增长速度足以将失业率降至4.1％，比上年下降约3/4个百分点，为2000年12月以来的最低水平。此外，劳动力参与率基本保持不变，就像过去几年一样 - 这是就业市场实力的一个标志，因为即将退休的婴儿潮一代正在给参与率带来下行压力。近年来的强劲增长导致收入范围和所有主要人口群体的失业率大幅下降。例如，未受过高中教育的成年人的失业率从2009年的15％下降到今年1月的5-1 / 2％，而大学学历的失业率从5％下降到2％在同一时期。此外，非洲裔美国人和西班牙裔美国人的失业率现在仍低于经济衰退前的水平，但仍高于白人。工资继续适度增长，一些措施略有加快，尽管近年来生产率增长缓慢的部分可能已经阻止了上涨幅度。而大学学历的失业率从同期的5％下降到2％。此外，非洲裔美国人和西班牙裔美国人的失业率现在仍低于经济衰退前的水平，但仍高于白人。工资继续适度增长，一些措施略有加快，尽管近年来生产率增长缓慢的部分可能已经阻止了上涨幅度。而大学学历的失业率从同期的5％下降到2％。此外，非洲裔美国人和西班牙裔美国人的失业率现在仍低于经济衰退前的水平，但仍高于白人。工资继续适度增长，一些措施略有加快，尽管近年来生产率增长缓慢的部分可能已经阻止了上涨幅度。

从劳动力市场转向生产，通胀调整后的国内生产总值（GDP）在2017年下半年以每年约3％的速度增长，比上半年的速度快1个百分点。由于家庭收入和财富增加以及乐观的情绪支撑，下半年的经济增长主要得益于消费者支出的稳步增长。此外，去年商业投资增长大幅增加，这应该能够支持更高的生产率增长。房地产市场继续缓慢改善。最近几个季度国外的经济活动也很稳固，美国出口需求的增强为我们的制造业提供了相当大的支持。

在稳健增长和强劲劳动力市场的背景下，通货膨胀率一直较低且稳定。实际上，通货膨胀率继续低于联邦公开市场委员会在国会授权下长期以来最为一致的2％。以个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）衡量的整体消费价格在截至12月的12个月中增长了1.7％，与2016年大致相同。核心PCE价格指数不包括能源和食品价格是未来通货膨胀的较好指标，同期上涨1.5％，略低于去年。我们继续认为去年通胀的一部分缺口可能反映了暂时的影响，我们预计不会重演; 与这一观点相一致。

在2017年大幅放宽后，美国的财政状况已经扭转了部分宽松局面。在这一点上，我们认为这些发展并未对经济活动，劳动力市场和通货膨胀前景产生重大影响。事实上，经济前景依然强劲。强劲的就业市场应继续支持家庭收入和消费者支出的增长，我们贸易伙伴之间的稳健经济增长应导致美国出口进一步上涨，乐观的商业信心和强劲的销售增长可能会继续推动商业投资。此外，财政政策正在变得更加刺激。在这种情况下，我们预计今年12个月的通胀率将上升，并在中期内稳定在联邦公开市场委员会2％的目标周围。工资也应该以更快的速度增长。委员会认为近期经济前景面临的风险基本平衡，但将继续密切监测通胀的发展。

美联储主席杰罗姆H.鲍威尔

货币政策

现在我将转向货币政策。国会已赋予我们促进最大就业和稳定价格的目标。2017年下半年，联邦公开市场委员会继续逐步退出宽松的货币政策。具体而言，我们在12月会议上将联邦基金利率目标范围上调了1/4个百分点，目标范围为1%-1.25%至1%-1.5％。此外，在10月份，我们启动了资产负债表正常化计划，以逐步减少美联储的证券持有量。该方案进展顺利。这些利率和资产负债表行动反映了委员会认为逐步减少货币政策的宽松程度将维持强劲的劳动力市场，同时促使通货膨胀率回升至2％。

在衡量未来几年货币政策的适当路径时，联邦公开市场委员会将继续在避免经济过热和PCE价格持续上涨2％之间取得平衡。尽管许多因素影响了经济前景，但美国经济在过去几年面临的一些阻力已经变成顺风顺水：特别是财政政策变得更加刺激，外国对美国出口的需求处于更加坚挺的轨道。尽管近期出现波动，但财务状况依然宽松。与此同时，通货膨胀仍然低于我们2％的长期目标。

在联邦公开市场委员会看来，联邦基金利率进一步逐步上涨将最有助于实现我们的目标。

在评估货币政策立场时，联邦公开市场委员会通常会参考货币政策规则，将政策利率的处方与我们的授权目标相关的变量联系起来。就我个人而言，我发现这些规则处方很有帮助。需要仔细判断所使用变量的测量结果，以及这些规则未考虑的许多问题的影响。我想指出，这份货币政策报告进一步讨论了货币政策规则及其在美联储政策过程中的作用，并延长了我们在7月份所做的分析。

谢谢。我会很乐意提出你的问题。

英文原文

On the occasion of my first appearance before this Committee as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I want to express my appreciation for my predecessor, Chair Janet Yellen, and her important contributions. During her term as Chair, the economy continued to strengthen and Federal Reserve policymakers began to normalize both the level of interest rates and the size of the balance sheet. Together, Chair Yellen and I have worked to ensure a smooth leadership transition and provide for continuity in monetary policy. I also want to express my appreciation for my colleagues>

Current Economic Situation and Outlook

The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace over the second half of 2017 and into this year. Monthly job gains averaged 179,000 from July through December, and payrolls rose an additional 200,000 in January. This pace of job growth was sufficient to push the unemployment rate down to 4.1 percent, about 3/4 percentage point lower than a year earlier and the lowest level since December 2000. In addition, the labor force participation rate remained roughly unchanged,>

Turning from the labor market to production, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of about 3 percent in the second half of 2017, 1 percentage point faster than its pace in the first half of the year. Economic growth in the second half was led by solid gains in consumer spending, supported by rising household incomes and wealth, and upbeat sentiment. In addition, growth in business investment stepped up sharply last year, which should support higher productivity growth in time. The housing market has continued to improve slowly. Economic activity abroad also has been solid in recent quarters, and the associated strengthening in the demand for U.S. exports has provided considerable support to our manufacturing industry.

Against this backdrop of solid growth and a strong labor market, inflation has been low and stable. In fact, inflation has continued to run below the 2 percent rate that the FOMC judges to be most consistent over the longer run with our congressional mandate. Overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in December, about the same as in 2016. The core PCE price index, which excludes the prices of energy and food items and is a better indicator of future inflation, rose 1.5 percent over the same period, somewhat less than in the previous year. We continue to view some of the shortfall in inflation last year as likely reflecting transitory influences that we do not expect will repeat; consistent with this view, the monthly readings were a little higher toward the end of the year than in earlier months.

After easing substantially during 2017, financial conditions in the United States have reversed some of that easing. At this point, we do not see these developments as weighing heavily>

Monetary Policy

I will now turn to monetary policy. The Congress has assigned us the goals of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Over the second half of 2017, the FOMC continued to gradually reduce monetary policy accommodation. Specifically, we raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at our December meeting, bringing the target to a range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent. In addition, in October we initiated a balance sheet normalization program to gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings. That program has been proceeding smoothly. These interest rate and balance sheet actions reflect the Committee's view that gradually reducing monetary policy accommodation will sustain a strong labor market while fostering a return of inflation to 2 percent.

In gauging the appropriate path for monetary policy over the next few years, the FOMC will continue to strike a balance between avoiding an overheated economy and bringing PCE price inflation to 2 percent>

In evaluating the stance of monetary policy, the FOMC routinely consults monetary policy rules that connect prescriptions for the policy rate with variables associated with our mandated objectives. Personally, I find these rule prescriptions helpful. Careful judgments are required about the measurement of the variables used, as well as about the implications of the many issues these rules do not take into account. I would like to note that this Monetary Policy Report provides further discussion of monetary policy rules and their role in the Federal Reserve's policy process, extending the analysis we introduced in July.

Thank you. I would be pleased to take your questions.

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