2018年1月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数发布 2018年1月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指

一、指数概览

2018年1月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得31.3，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为31.3%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月下降0.1个百分点（图1）。本月NEI的下降主要来自资本投入的下降。

NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。

二、主要分项指标

NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2018年1月NEI的微降主要来自资本投入的下降。资本投入指数从2017年以来波动较大，本月资本投入指数结束自2017年10月以来的回升，环比下降1.1。科技投入指数从2017年6月起显示出较强的增长趋势，本月延续上升趋势，指数录得34.4，环比上升2.1。劳动力投入指数自2017年7月以来出现缓慢下降趋势，本月环比下降0.4，指数录得29.2（图2）。

劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为-0.2，-0.4，和0.5个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2018年1月NEI变化的贡献值为-0.1（图3）。

分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2018年1月为总指数贡献了7.6个百分点；本月名次上升较快的行业为高端装备制造业，贡献率为5.5个百分点，位列第三名；新能源产业贡献率排名下降最多，从上月的第二名下降至本月第八名，贡献率为0.9个百分点（图4）。

三、新经济就业

2018年1月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平环比继续上升，为每月10481元，较上月增长220元，刷新有史以来最高值（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。

2018年1月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例微降至28.5%，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重也略有下降，为29.9%，这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平出现下降。2018年1月新经济入职工资“溢价”为4.8%，低于上月5.1%（图6）。近半年新经济行业的平均工资溢价总体仍低于上半年新经济行业的平均工资溢价，但开始出现回升迹象。

四、分行业劳动力报酬变化

本月的图7、8、9是三个散点图，分别从劳动力报酬、资本投入以及人口流动三个方面刻画了2015、2016和2017三个年度的变化。

图7代表的是不同二位数代码行业在2016年和2017年的工资变化情况。可以看到，大部分行业集中在第一象限——两年的工资都有所上升，部分行业处在第二象限或第四象限：二象限行业在2016年的工资水平比2015年下降，但在2017年有所上升，四象限行业的工资在2016年有所上升，却在2017年下降了。可以看到，第四象限的行业个数明显多于第二象限，例如商务服务业、保险业、证券业、餐饮业等，这意味着在2017年从增长陷入衰退的行业，要多于从衰退中出现复苏的行业。

2017年，中国经济出现总体复苏态势。我们可以看到，在第一象限，有许多行业连续两年出现了较快的增长，例如房地产业、租赁业等。许多制造业门类也连续两年出现了上升。这些行业的持续稳定，保证了中国的经济增长。

需要注意的是，经过我们的检验这张散点图具有显著的负相关性，如果分别沿着x+y=0的函数，以及x+y=15%的函数作图，两条线划分的三个区域，大致能体现出行业的持续发展可能性。2015年至2017年，传统金融业经历衰退，部分传统制造业复苏势头强劲，而大部分行业位于两条线的中间部分，表现出此起彼落的增长趋势。

五、分地区人口流量变化

图8刻画了三个时间段的机场流量对比（这个对比中我们已经排除了春运的影响），这同样是一个具有显著负相关性的散点图。值得关注的是，第四象限的机场个数仍然显著多于第二象限，例如贵阳、武汉、郑州等在2017年人流量增长迅速的机场，在2018年1月都出现了人流量的下跌。上海、广州的连续两年人流量净增、以及哈尔滨、长春和大连的连续两年人流量净减少，尤为令人瞩目。

这样的负相关性，可能也体现出了中国中西部和东部二线城市发展也具有一定的周期性，相比仍然具有吸引力的一线城市，二线城市进入稳定增长仍然需要时间。

六、分行业资本流入变化

图9列出了不同行业资本流入的比例，在这张图中，排名降低意味着比例升高，因此我们在作图时也考虑到了这点。可以看到，第一象限中建筑工程的变化非常显著，连续两年，从排名30上升至排名13，而电子商务、传播等行业的排名也出现了连续两年的下降。同图7和图8一样，资本流入排名的散点图同样具有负相关性。

七、城市新经济排名

2018年1月新经济总量城市排名前20名如图10所示，北京、上海、广州、杭州、南京排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。

图11计算了2017年7月到2018年1月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、上海、杭州、广州、深圳。

更多咨询敬请联络:

万事达卡

大中华区公共关系副总经理吴焕宇

电话：+86-10-8519-9304

电邮：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com

财新智库

财新智库高级经济学家王喆

电话：+86-10-8590-5019

电邮：zhewang@caixin.com

公关总监马玲

电话：+86-10-8590-5204

电邮：lingma@caixin.com

BBD（数联铭品）

BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家陈沁

电话：+86-28-6529-0823

电邮：chenqin@bbdservice.com

万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。

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January

2018

Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index

Overview

In January 2018, the Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 31.3, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 31.3% of overall economic input activities that month, down 0.1 ppts from December (Chart 1). The declining NEI was due to the decrease of capital input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light; 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.

Primary Inputs

The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index, respectively. The decline in the January NEI reading came from the decrease of capital inputs (Chart 2). Capital investment fluctuated widely since 2017. After rebounding in October 2017, it decreased to 31.5 this month, with 1.1 MoM decrease. Technology input index showed strong growth trend since June 2017. In January, it continued to rise to 34.4, with 2.1 MoM increase. Labor input index declined moderately since July 2017, dropping to 29.2 this month, with 0.4 MoM decrease.

Taking the weight into account, percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.2, -0.4, and 0.5 ppts, respectively. The net NEI change was -0.1 ppts in total (Chart 3).

Looking at the sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 7.6 ppts to NEI. Advanced Equipment Manufacturing was the industry with fast growth in January, contributing 5.5 ppts and ranking the third. New Energy came eighth from second, the biggest drop in ranking, contributing 0.9 ppts in January (Chart 4).

New Economy Employment

In January 2018, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,481 per month, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 10,261 and reaching the highest level since 2016 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands.

Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 28.5% of total hiring in January, slightly lower than the previous month’s 28.9%. At the same time, the total compensation share of New Economy sectors decreased to 29.9%, which meant the average entry salary level of New Economy grew slower than national level. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 4.8% as compared to economy-wide counterparts, decreasing from 5.1% in December (Chart 6). In the recent half year, the average salary premium of the New Economy was lower than the first half year generally, while we saw an uptrend.

Change of Labor Compensation across Industries

Chart 7, 8 and 9 in this month illustrated the changes of labor compensation, capital input and passengers inflow from 2015 to 2017 by scatter plots, respectively.

The changes of salaries in 2016 and 2017 by two-digit industries were shown in Chart 7. Most industries laid in the first quadrant, indicating two consecutives years of rising salaries. A couple of industries were found in the second or the fourth quadrant. They either experience declining salaries in 2016 and rising ones in 2017, or vice versa. It showed that there were more industries in the fourth quadrant than in the second, among which were industries of Business Service, Insurance, Securities and Catering. In 2017, there were less industries expanding from recessions in previous year.

The macroeconomic recovery in 2017 was attributed to industries in the first quadrant which expanded in 2016 and 2017. Salaries in multiple industries showed strong growth trend since 2015, for example, in Real Estate, Leasing as well as Manufacturing. The stable and solid growth in these industries guaranteed China’s economic growth.

It’s noted that the scatter plot showed a significant negative correlation. Lines of x+y=0 and x+y=15% categorized industries into three groups and recession of traditional financial industris and recovery of traditional manufacturing industries were main observations. Industries located between the two lines found moderate growth rates in past two years.

Change of Passengers Inflow Based on Major Airports

The changes of passenger inflow by city were shown in Chart 8 (Spring Festival seasonal effects were excluded). We found similar patterns here: a negative relationship was found and there were more cities in the fourth quadrant than that in the second. Cities of Guiyang, Wuhan, Zhengzhou and other airports with rapid passenger inflow growth in 2017 experienced outflows in January 2018. Shanghai and Guangzhou kept attracting people but Harbin, Changchun and Dalian were losing people in two consecutive years. The population inflow and outflow in second-tier cities in the eastern and midwest China were still subject to cyclical effects, in contrast to the attractive first-tier cities.

Capital Input across Industries

Capital inflow statistics were shown in Chart 9, where we denoted the change in rankings by industries. Capital input in Architectural Engineering rose fast, ranking up from No. 30 to No.13 in two years, while E-commerce and Communication saw consecutive ranking-downs in the meantime. Similar to our observations in Chart 7 and 8, capital inflow saw a negative trend, or a cyclical effect, in the past two years.

City Rankings of the New Economy

Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Nanjing. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.

Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between July 2017 and January 2018. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

For further information please contact:

MasterCard

Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications

Tel：+86-10-8519-9304

Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com

Caixin Insight Group

Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist

Tel：+86-10-8590-5019

Emails：zhewang@caixin.com

Ma Ling, Public Relations

Tel：+86-10-8590-5204

Email：lingma@caixin.com

BBD

Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist

Tel：+86-28-6529-0823

Emails：chenqin@bbdservice.com

The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

About Caixin

Caixin Media is China"s leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit

www.caixin.com.

About MasterCard

MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.

About BBD (Business Big Data)

BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit

http://www.bbdservice.com/